A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
